COP31: How do we deliver a just transition?
COP31 is where States must decide how the Just Transition Work Programme will work in practice, and how – and whether – it will be able to protect those most affected by the shift to a low-carbon economy. CRIN sets out what COP31 must deliver to make the just transition work for children, not just on paper but in practice.
The establishment of the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) at COP30 last November was an important milestone in meaningful climate action. The JTWP not only provides guidance and support to countries transitioning to low-carbon economies, but it has also, for the first time in COP decisions, included the protection of human rights in its operative text. Yet, when the Subsidiary Bodies met in June to set COP31’s agenda, they closed without agreeing on the JTWP mechanism’s proposed text or its terms of reference.
As CRIN prepares for COP31 in Antalya, Turkey next month, we still have to ask: What does a ‘just’ transition really look like? And who does it need to protect?
Why children’s rights are important in a just transition
When we talk about upholding children’s rights, we are ultimately talking about protecting the most vulnerable members of society. Therefore, when we design systems that keep children safe, we create systems that are safer for everyone – strengthening the protection of society as a whole. The decision to respect, protect and fulfil children’s rights in JTWP mechanism decision-making is not only ethical but functional, too. Children’s rights are human rights, and States’ obligations to protect those rights must be central in the just transition negotiations.
In addition, as CRIN has explored in earlier pieces on the previous COP (‘After three decades of climate talks, can COP30 bring the change we need?’ and ‘COP30's aftermath: Failure, confusion and hope’), the transition away from fossil fuels will have profound consequences for children. Children must not only face the impacts of climate change, but also the transition’s social and economic repercussions. Without adequate safeguards, children’s livelihoods may be disrupted and, in some cases, they may experience worse conditions.
A truly just transition should prevent these negative outcomes. It must protect children today, while defending the rights and opportunities of generations to come.
COP30: A step forward, but not far enough
COP30 was bittersweet. On the one hand, the inclusion of human rights protection in the operative text of a COP decision was a historic achievement. It reaffirmed that climate action cannot be separated from the rights and dignity of the people it’s intended to protect. Specifically, the decision recognised the importance of respecting, promoting and fulfilling children’s rights (among many other rights holders). It also recognised the importance of the informal sector and care economy, considering how a transition will affect the livelihoods of the parents and caretakers who are responsible for children’s welfare.
On the other hand, COP30’s just transition decision ignored one of the main drivers of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. As CRIN has previously argued, unless we directly confront and name the most complicit industries, any talk of a ‘just transition’ rings hollow. Protecting human rights is a cornerstone of effective and equitable climate action. But protecting these rights doesn’t make a transition ‘just’, especially if our policies fail to address the climate crisis’ root causes (the most significant of which is fossil fuels).
Put simply, we cannot claim to deliver a just transition while leaving the source of the problem untouched. As a metaphor, it would be like mopping up a spill on the floor while the tap is still running. How can we build a just and sustainable world if we keep relying on and investing in highly polluting industries, deepening our dependence on the very thing that’s running us into the ground?
And while the COP31 Presidency's 35 by 35 goal is a step in the right direction, it cannot be pursued under the guise of continued gas exploitation – nor can it be the only progress COP31 makes. In addition to increasing the clean energy available for electricity from 20% to 35%, we must simultaneously begin to phase out fossil fuels. This joint approach is the best way to accelerate the energy transition, which has also been called for in the fourth COP31 Presidency letter. Although it should be said that, while this letter stresses the need to accelerate the energy transition – disappointingly – it does not name the need to phase out fossil fuels.
The International Conferences on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels are a breath of fresh air after decades of stalled discussions, but they cannot be the only space to address fossil fuels as the cause of the climate crisis. Any inertia and backtracking within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could have consequences that are felt for generations.
What needs to happen at COP31?
The next phase of the JTWP will focus on establishing a mechanism to implement the programme. This is both an opportunity and a risk, which is why the State Parties attending COP31 must ensure the wording decided on at COP30 – one which was firmly based in the language of human rights and safeguarding – is meaningfully retained in the final text. However, States can go further than simply using the right terminology or describing the appropriate processes. A truly just transition cannot only say how societies ‘should’ transition; it must also address what we are transitioning away from and what we are transitioning towards. A just transition would name the failures of our existing systems, and establish safeguarding measures to prevent those same failures in new and rising sectors.
COP31 must therefore deliver on the following priorities:
Ground the mechanism for the JTWP in existing UNFCCC processes: The JTWP should be informed by relevant UNFCCC processes – particularly the outcomes of the Global Stocktake (GST), as set out in paragraph 6 of the JTWP draft conclusions. The GST provides a critical assessment of where the world stands with respect to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Its findings should therefore inform the design of a just transition, rather than being treated as a parallel but separate process.
Define what we are transitioning from and what we are transitioning towards, and the pathway to get there, led by the best available science and legal obligations under international law. A just transition needs clarity. Without naming the industries that must transition in a just way, such as the fossil fuels industry, we cannot address the challenges and risks we are facing, and we risk repeating similar human rights violations we are witnessing now in new industries, e.g. the renewable energy industry, where displacement, water and air pollution are occurring more and more across the Global South.
Address the root cause of the climate crisis, and include financial incentives and means of implementation: A just transition cannot be separated from the problem of fossil fuels. Our continued reliance on fossil fuels is at the heart of the climate crisis. Any credible transition framework must therefore address the role of fossil fuels and the need to phase them out. However, the framework must also ensure that children, workers and affected communities are protected throughout this process. Ignoring either issue risks creating a framework that manages consequences without addressing the cause.
States must also support and collaborate with each other to ensure that, while society moves away from fossil fuels, we are also setting up a structure that supports and strengthens the position of States – especially the Least Developed Countries or the Small Island Developing States. The fossil fuel phase-out must be supported financially, with incentives that accelerate the shift toward green sectors like renewable energy (such as solar and wind). Subsidies from harmful industries, such as the fossil fuel industry, must also be removed. States should also be able to collaborate and support each other in the transition by sharing best practices.
Establish the JTWP mechanism under the JTWP itself: CRIN believes the JTWP mechanism should be established under the Just Transition Work Programme itself, rather than under the COP31 Presidency. This is important not only institutionally but substantively. Anchoring the mechanism within the JTWP would help preserve the human rights language and protection mechanisms agreed at COP30, and help the JTWP continue beyond a single COP Presidency.
Ensure the inclusion of the care economy within the mechanism's infrastructure: The JTWP mechanism should recognise and address the care economy – including informal and unpaid sectors – as an essential component of a just transition. These sectors underpin societies and economies, while often remaining undervalued and invisible in economic and policy frameworks.
For example, children often depend heavily on their parents' or caretaker’s well-being and welfare – whether through their livelihoods, their access to essential services, care arrangements, and other broader social and economic circumstances. A stable and healthy income, decent work and a decent environment are all integral to children's upbringing. Failing to account for these factors means overlooking a significant share of the workforce (and economic activity) the transition will affect, both directly and indirectly. Integrating the care economy into the JTWP’s mechanism would help to ensure transition policies are inclusive, socially responsive and reflective of the realities of children, women, workers and communities worldwide.
Promote green education and climate literacy: The mechanism should promote green education, climate literacy, as well as accessible vocational training for children and young people. As climate mis- and disinformation becomes increasingly widespread (especially online), it is essential to equip young people with the knowledge and skills to critically navigate climate-related facts.
By centring real climate knowledge, we can help future generations prepare to participate in and benefit from the transition to low-carbon economies.
A make-or-break moment
COP31 will not only test the credibility of the just transition agenda, but it will also reflect our global commitment to act on climate. Will States finally be willing to put people and the planet before short-term interests? Will they protect those most vulnerable, whether from the impacts of climate change or from the transition itself? And will they be ambitious enough to address the crisis’ root causes – which means naming the burning of fossil fuels? The answers to these questions will determine whether the just transition becomes more than a principle on paper.
COP31 must be the moment when States turn their promise into a pathway. The Just Transition Work Programme should genuinely protect people and respect human rights. And it must name fossil fuels as a root cause of the climate crisis. COP30 was a step in the right direction; now COP31 needs to take us further. If we make the right choices, the forthcoming JTWP can truly deliver a safer future for children and generations to come.
Read other articles on COP, including the recommendations from CRIN’s Climate Advisers for COP30 and CRIN’s analysis of COP30’s aftermath.